Obama’s Economic Pivot – Could it Save the Immigration Debate?

Obama’s Economic Pivot – Could it Save the Immigration Debate?

– Christopher Carroll

Obama’s pivot to towards the economy and away from addressing immigration reform is well timed. It may be the only way to shepherd the difficult bill through the ultra-polarized election season.

An inconsistent and leaderless Republican caucus and increasingly partisan rhetoric will doom immigration reform in the House. While hardly out of the ordinary, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D – Nev.) and House Speaker John Boehner (R – Ohio) are speaking past each other.  But this time of year, it is worse than ever.

As is to be expected, the approaching election season has brought polarizing political rhetoric and inconsistent leadership to Washington. Speaker Boehner repeatedly states that the Senate immigration bill will not be brought to the floor and Leader Reid repeatedly calls for comprehensive reform. Yesterday, Senator Reid termed the House immigration strategy “bite-sized” while going on to explain that if the Senate bill were brought to the House floor, it would pass “overwhelmingly.” Meanwhile, Boehner’s claim that “nobody has spent more time” on immigration reform than him has been scoffed at by White House Press Secretary Carney, further escalating tensions.

English: Jay Carney giving a press briefing. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Pressure on Speaker Boehner is coming from within the House as well. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has called on the Speaker to encourage the Republican caucus to pass a comprehensive bill rather than pieces of legislation.

Pelosi, in a letter to Speaker Boehner, writes that “priorities for immigration reform are the principles laid out by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, with commitments to secure our borders, protect our workers, unite our families, and provide an earned pathway to citizenship.” These priorities, she claims, receive bipartisan support. “We are ready to act in a bipartisan fashion,” continues Pelosi, so as “to afford all immigrants a fair shot at the American Dream, and to make comprehensive immigration reform the law of the land.”

Democrats are seemingly united in their call for an earned pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants already in the country. Republicans, meanwhile, agree that children of illegal immigrants should be allowed an opportunity to become citizens. But this variation on the DREAM act rings false for many, as it could further split families apart, forcing children to choose between separation from their family and risking deportation.

DREAM act (Photo credit: quinn.anya)

As these leaders become increasingly vocal about their disagreements, those who hope for any sort of immigration reform are left to shrug their shoulders and brace for inevitable disappointment.

****

The DREAMact disagreement and the disagreement in overall structure the legislation will take  is a result of divergent leadership styles and increased electoral season pressure. Reid has recently been very aggressive in his advocacy for President Obama’s agenda and his vision for the Senate. Speaker Boehner, meanwhile, employs a more hands-off approach, preferring to facilitate discussion while ensuring a Republican majority on all bills through the Hastert Rule.

However, in yesterday’s economic speech at Knox College, President Obama folded the immigration debate into discussion about the overall economy. This may save it.

By putting both Obamacare and immigration reform into a larger context that everyone in the country can identify with, the President not only removed pressure on those components themselves, but also provided the debate time to marinate within the minds of the public. He has linked the steady but stubbornly slow progress seen in the economy with the stubbornly contentious immigration issue.

Official photographic portrait of US President Barack Obama (born 4 August 1961; assumed office 20 January 2009) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This will help the public identify with the issue. Everyone has, to varying degrees, been affected by the recession. Progress has been steady. The economy is consistently adding jobs. The housing, industrial and energy markets are strengthening. However, there is still much to be done. More progress is needed. While the economy is creating jobs, most of them are low-paying jobs rather than the higher-paying jobs that were lost. Detroit has gone bankrupt. Families are still struggling.

 But, by linking the economic progress that has been seen and that must still be done with the progress that must be done on immigration, President Obama might have saved the bill, or at least productive discussion of it. By linking immigration to public understanding of the overall economic recovery, President Obama may successfully shepherd the issue through the polarized combative mid-term elections. If he does, he will have breathed life in an important issue currently gasping for breath.

Gerrymandering, the GOP and Immigration Reform – Doomed to Fail

Gerrymandering, the GOP and Immigration Reform – Doomed to Fail – gerrymandering and GOP shortsightedness will kill reform and could kill the Republican Party.

-Christopher Carroll

 

 

The chances that the Senate immigration bill passes the House are zero. The chances that the House passes even a piece-meal immigration bill, while not zero, are pretty close.  Gerrymandering and poor foresight are to blame. Both Democrats and Republicans should be upset.

The chances of passage have never been very good. Though it passed with a solid majority in the Senate, Marco Rubio, the Republican champion from Florida and a likely 2016 presidential candidate was only able to convince 13 republicans to vote for the bill, even with the immense border security spending.

There seems to be growing sentiment among House republicans that, in the words of Tom Cotton (R-Ark.), any type of immigration legislation, even piecemeal legislation, could become a “Trojan Horse in a conference committee,” where a “package that puts legalization first and enforcement second” is written. The border security priority held so dearly by many Republicans is pointing immigration reform right into the ground.

Some seem to believe that immigration reform will not help Republicans regardless of whether or not they vote for the bill. “It would hurt Republicans,” Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa), a particularly anti-immigration bill member of Congress, explained. “I don’t think you can make an argument otherwise,” continued King. “Two out of every three of the new citizens would be Democrats.”

speaking at CPAC in Washington D.C. on February 11, 2011. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Republicans nationwide should fundamentally reject King’s stance. While recent history and Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign would seem to support King’s claim, hispanic immigrants have historically shared many conservative values. Additionally, the fact that Mitt Romney lost the hispanic vote by over 40% in 2012 should be perfect reason to go ahead and implement new laws, not reject a part of our national community altogether.

Many G.O.P leaders, Republican think-tanks and political analysts agree that it is in the best interests of the party to embrace minorities and immigrants. The Census Bureau predicts that by 2060, non-hispanic whites will account for only 43% of the national population. The GOP can’t afford to ignore changing demographics and expect not to go extinct as a major political party.

The in-roads President George W. Bush made in the hispanic community were seen in his re-election splits. According to the Roper Center, John Kerry won the vote 53% – 44%, by far the closest split of any recent election. Additionally, it can be argued that the traditional family, religious and economic values held by much of the hispanic community closely mirror those of many conservative voters and politicians.

****

We are witnessing the hostage-taking of the entire Republican party by their own gerrymandering. Republicans, afraid of being challenged from the right, won’t go near any legislation that may help President Obama (one reason he has been so silent recently on immigration reform) or Democrats in the slightest. They won’t go near compromise, for fear of seeming soft or otherwise insufficiently conservative.

This environment has brought Washington to a screeching halt and risks bringing the Party to its knees. The short-term fears that gerrymandering has put into Republican congressmen is causing them to ignore the long-term interests of the Party. This will cripple it for years.

Unless Republican leadership is able to convince their membership that they can and should pass legislation, immigration reform will fizzle-out and die. If it does fail, the GOP will be spurning an ever expanding, prevalent and important part of our community that will, in turn, reject the GOP. Republican politicians, for fear of their own jobs due to their own gerrymandering practices, will be protecting themselves in the short run while simultaneously creating a second class of people.

If Republicans can learn anything from the Marriage Equality movement, it should be that creation of a second class is politically dangerous and morally unacceptable and that the times will always catch up to you.

Good Fences – They don’t make good neighbors

Good Fences – They don’t make good neighbors

-Christopher Carroll

 

The United States is sliding towards becoming a society that has isolated itself from both its neighbors and the world for fear of illegal immigrants. American society and citizens shouldn’t stand for it.

Today, a test vote for the “border surge” agreement of the Gang of Eight’s immigration bill passed with 67 votes in the senate, paving the way to the bill’s passage later this week. The deal is a heartening and exciting development for those of us who hope that the bill will gain favor from a supermajority in the Senate. Members of the GOP that had previously been hesitant to endorse the bill seem likely to vote for it and members of the Democratic majority are not simultaneously walking away from the deal in disgust. However, while the deal may be good news for the prospects of immigration reform in the country, it prioritizes isolation from our neighbors, a trait that will prove extremely dangerous for the fabric of our society.

Immigration (Photo credit: lcars)

The deal, brokered by Senators Corker (R-Tenn) and Hoeven (R-N.D), would increase border expenditure on technologies and personnel in exchange for relaxing certain “triggers” that Republican senators were demanding, chiefly the demand that 90% of illegal border crossers be apprehended before the “pathway to citizenship” program could be implemented.

The progress seen followed the release of a CBO score of the proposed bill, suggesting that the bill would reduce illegal immigration by 25% and reduce the deficit by hundreds of billions of dollars over the next 20 years.

The GOP, including Senators Cornyn (R-Tx), McCAin, (R-Az.) and Graham (R-S.C), has used the CBO score to argue for the need to beef up security at the United States/Mexico border. “What we are trying to do,” explained Senator Graham, “is put in place measures that to any reasonable person would be overwhelming effort to secure our border short of shooting everybody that comes across the border.” This statement is as dangerous as it is alarming. Where did you get this quote? When did Graham say this? You need to incorporate a citation i.e, in an interview with blah blah, Senator Graham said… I’m going to try to “link” to the article. Ok, great!

By emphasizing fences rather than bridges and surveillance drones rather than societal inclusion, we are rejecting the world beyond our own backyard. Our fences and barriers will eventually turn the entire world into good neighbors – the kind that ignores us when we need help and rejects us when we extend our hand in partnership.

The fence and increased security policies mirror that of one of our strongest allies, Israel.

For years, Israel has been building one of the most technologically advanced walls in the world and soon they will essentially have partitioned their entire border. Since beginning the project, the wall has had greatly reduced the number of attacks from the Occupied State of Palestine and had a dynamic impact on the safety of Israel’s citizenry. But in achieving this, they have told the outside world to stay out and leave them alone. Is that what America is for? Is America willing to build walls with turrets, motion sensors, sentries and video cameras to keep other people out? Are immigrants as dangerous to our safety as extremist terrorists are to Israel’s?

The problem is that without this deal, the overall immigration overhaul would likely never pass in the Senate, to say nothing of passing in the House. Immigration is extraordinarily important for the country. Passing reform, especially with a “pathway to citizenship,” will be a boon for the economy and for the cultural diversity and health of our society and inhabitants.

If the passage of the border surge agreement will allow the bill to pass the senate (as is expected) then it is a necessary evil. The agreement may never be implemented due to questions about its cost and effectiveness, and if it serves as political cover or induces agreement, it will be a good thing. But whether or not it provides results is yet to be seen.

In the end, the agreement and the entire conversation may be moot. The House will not leave the bill untouched after passage through the Senate and the extreme polarization that has marked the past 5 years will likely prevent it from garnering the support of a majority of both houses and President Obama. Whatever happens, the country must avoid building fences and barriers. A good neighborhood is one with mutual respect, appreciation and partnership. Good fences don’t make good neighbors; they make lonely ones..

Deutsch: genagelter Speltenzaun auf dem Bödele. Français : Clôture en bois à Bödele, Autriche. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)